The futures snail continued to be red. Is December a bear market or a bull market?
Publishers£ºadmin Views£º Published£º2021-12-06
Yesterday's opening, the domestic black trend differentiation. The raw material side continued to rise and encountered resistance. The adjustment accelerated in the afternoon. The main iron ore contract reached the 600 yuan mark, with a decrease of more than 3%. The double coke was approaching the 2000 yuan and 2700 yuan mark, respectively, with a decrease of about 2%. The rise of thread and hot roll futures also showed a significant return, and finally took a rest above 4200 yuan and 4500 yuan. The price of the spot market rose and fell with each other. In the early morning, the bottom price of some regions was slightly higher driven by the market. In the afternoon, the futures market gave back, and the number of merchants began to increase in an overt and covert manner. The market transaction performance was still average. Except for a few regions in the south, the performance was slightly better. Terminal and speculative demand in most regions did not change significantly, and some were even less than yesterday. The market news hype started again, mainly focusing on the expected cooling of production restriction. In the early stage, the news that the performance of Tangshan steel enterprises was transferred from D to C was put on hold. On the contrary, the news of production restriction in some regions showed signs of warming up, involving sintering and blast furnaces. At the same time, the second round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection supervision was launched and settled in 4 provinces and regions including Heilongjiang, which coincided with the first adjustment of the raw material side. In December, there was a clear sign of weakening demand in the north, businesses were pessimistic, and the southern market was not fully released. At present, the spot end is still far from the psychological price of winter storage, and the demand for winter storage has not been effectively triggered. Influential factors: 1. China Automobile Association: It is estimated that the sales volume of the automobile industry in November will increase 5.9% month on month. According to the weekly reports submitted by 13 key enterprises, the China Automobile Association estimates that the sales volume of the automobile industry in November will reach 2.47 million units, with a month on month increase of 5.9%. 2. The amount of new special bonds next year may still be at a high level according to Xinhua Finance and Economics statistics. As of November 30, 71719814.8 billion yuan of local bonds had been issued this year, hitting a record high. The agency estimated that the issuing scale of new special bonds in December was about 120 billion yuan. According to the current issuance announcements, local governments plan to issue 37.3 billion yuan of new special bonds from December 1 to 7. 3. In November, the amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises hit a new low in the year. All major institutions disclosed the sales, land acquisition and financing data of real estate enterprises in November. From the perspective of institutional data, sales of new and second-hand houses in hot areas represented by Shenzhen have improved significantly. The turnover of new houses in Beijing increased month on month. In terms of financing, the financing amount of real estate enterprises increased in November, and the financing interest rate decreased. However, in November, real estate enterprises were still cautious in land acquisition, with obvious year-on-year and month on month reductions. Comprehensive forecast: In December, we will enter into a complex market game. In terms of funds, the 01 contract is getting closer to the delivery month, and January is also the Spring Festival. The spot is not falling, and the futures and cash continue to receive the basis. In terms of spot goods, the winter storage market started, steel mills, agents and traders started winter storage operations, and the forward period is now the contract exchange period. The imbalance of resources and the cost game intensified, and the market is not stable. In terms of supply, faced with the risk of steel output growth in December and the pressure of production restriction in the northern winter Olympics and autumn and winter, it has been a new production reduction task under carbon neutral for a long time, and the supply has been disturbed. In terms of demand, weather, environmental downtime and other factors have long downtime, so it is difficult for demand to grow substantially before March. In addition, we should pay attention to the downward pressure on the economy and the measures to stabilize the economy, the downward trend of real estate and the policy base, the expectation of partial easing, and the demand for peripheral inflation and interest rate hikes. These factors are complex and will be more obvious in December. Therefore, in December, the steel market will not trend up or down. There will be a rebound in the rebound, a rebound in the decline, and moving forward in repeated shocks. The price center is expected to be higher than that in November.
Jiangsu JieDa Specific New Material Co.,Ltd